This blog post will deal mainly with the significant severe weather possibilities on Monday, but I do want to make brief mention of Sunday as well, which in my opinion, is still looking like a chase day for chasers in Kansas.
Moisture will be shallow and meager on Sunday along the dryline with dewpoints in the lower 50s ahead of the dryline in southwest KS. However, the shear looks good, and the upper levels will be improving through the day. The EHI values off of the 18z NAM are between 1 and 2 in southwest KS by early evening. The cap will also be rather strong, but may break by late afternoon or early evening. A few isolated thunderstorms could pop along the dryline in southwest KS, and they could provide some nice structure, and a landspout cannot be totally ruled out in my opinion. I seem to be one of only a handful of chasers who is actually interested at all in Sunday, and maybe I will totally bust, but I think there is enough there to at least consider targeting the Meade, KS to Liberal, KS to Tribune, KS, to Dodge City, KS to Meade, KS zone on Sunday.
Monday is going to be the main show for sure. Positives: Dryline punching in from the west, good jet dynamics, quite favorable shear. Negatives: Rather shallow moisture and dewpoints generally between 54 and 59 along the dryline, fast storm motion, and a rather narrow corridor of instability. However, so far this season we have seen a couple of situations where we have gotten tornadoes out of this type of set-up, so that is certainly a possibility this time as well. Everything seems to be coming together across eastern sections f southwest KS and all of central and south-central KS. Of course this zone could change between now and Monday, but right now I feel confident enough to throw out a target of Pratt, KS to Emporia, KS and 50 miles either side of that line. Development as early as 4pm, but more likely by 6pm. A few tornadoes possible between 6pm and 10pm.
Interestingly enough parts of KS could be looking at significant snow by late Thursday night and Friday, and a severe weather episode will encompass the Southeast U.S. on Friday and Saturday. I’ll blog about the Plains and Corn Belt snow/blizzard threat, as well as the Southeast severe weather threat on Tuesday once this Plains severe weather threat has ended.
StormScape Photography and Video 