Archive for severe weather outbreak

StormScapeLIVE.com LIVE Streaming Operations for the Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak of 3/26/11

Posted in Extreme Weather Video, Severe weather, weather photography with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 26, 2011 by stormstream

http://StormScapeLIVE.com will be broadcasting the severe weather outbreak across Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia LIVE today starting at 10am EDT. Click on the Mike Phelps and Brett Adair tabs on the web page above the video player to join us as our virtual storm chase partners! As always, we will have a high-quality video stream, as well as full audio at all times and an interactive chat room where you can communicate with us.

You can also now watch Mike Phelps’ live stream from your smart phone! Just go to the following page on your internet-enabled mobile device: http://www.dyyno.com/channel/stormscapelive#sid=9D04D8BE183AEC59

MEDIA: Click on the media tab on the web page to contact us for licensing a clean, logo and ad-free stream for use on air, and for live phoners from the field. Or, go to http://www.chasertv.com and click on the media page from there. We will provide you with a MAK code to access the clean stream.

FORECAST: A warm front stretches along the I-20 corridor through MS, AL and GA on this Saturday morning. Rain and a few elevated strong to severe storms are located along and north of that warm front. This convection will reinforce the warm front and basically hold it in its current position through much of the day, if anything lifting only very slowly northward this afternoon. Instability and shear will increase greatly along and about 100 miles south of the warm front this afternoon and evening, and that will provide a ripe environment for scattered surface-based supercells producing large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The StormScapeLIVE.com chase team will be intercepting these storms today beginning after 10am EDT. The best action should be between 3pm and 10pm EDT. We’ll have two chase vehicles covering the storms, with Mike Phelps in one, and Brett Adair and Eric Parker in the other.

This is a dangerous weather day across parts of the Southeast, so stay weather aware!

Mike Phelps
Owner – StormScapeLIVE.com

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Severe Weather Outbreak Likey for Parts of MS, AL, TN, GA, SC and NC on Monday, February 28, 2011

Posted in Severe weather with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on February 27, 2011 by stormstream

Severe storms producing heavy rain, damaging winds, hail, flash flooding and possibly a few strong tornadoes will sweep east and northeast across much of the southeast United States through the day on Monday. The most likely areas to see the most intense weather will be along and north of I-20/I-85.

Brett Adair and Eric Parker of AlabamaStormTrackers.com will be streaming this severe weather event LIVE at http://stormscapelive.com starting during the pre-dawn hours on Monday, and continuing much of the day. Ride along with them as their virtual storm chase partners and you will feel like you are a part of the storm chase. StormScapeLIVE.com is fully interactive with live video, audio and chat. By watching StormScapeLIVE.com you really do feel like you are sitting right there in the vehicle with the storm chasers. It truly is a unique and exciting experience you will find nowhere else!

Be sure and be weather-aware through the day on Monday, and be ready to take immediate action to protect life and property if severe weather warnings are issued.

Tornado Potential Increasing Across South-central and Southeast Kansas and North-central and Northeast Oklahoma on 5/13/09

Posted in Severe weather with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 13, 2009 by stormstream

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CENTRAL_ETA212_ATMOS_STP-NEW_24HR.gif
http://grib2.com/wrf/NW1_WRF_ATMOS_STP_24HR.gif

Still looking pretty good IMO.  This is the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) from the 0z NAM and the WRF.  These graphics are time-sensitive.  I’m glad the SPC extended the moderate risk back to the west to include south-central and southeast KS and north-central and northeast OK.  Also, watch out for gorilla hail today if you are chasing!

The slowing down trend continues.  The 06z NAM now has an EHI over 8 bullseye around Medicine Lodge at 7pm today, and the significant EHI now extends up to include the Wichita, Hutchinson and Pratt areas.  The threat looks to have shifted far enough north and west to put the Wichita area squarely in the target zone.

The NSSL WRF breaks out the first convection along the front near or just south-southwest of Wichita.  I’d be watching the Sedgwick, Sumner, Cowley, Harper, Kingman county areas in Kansas  for initial development as early as 2pm, but more likely in the 4 to 5pm range.  The cap is strong west and southwest of ICT at 21z, but has weakened to an easily breakable range from Wichita eastward by 21z.  This tells me that initial development my be very close to Wichita, KS.  Storm motion today will be from 278 degrees at 21 kts, so easily chaseable.

A Busy and Potentially Dangerous Severe Weather Day Across Dixie

Posted in Severe weather with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 2, 2009 by stormstream

A strong storm system will bring areas of severe thunderstorms to the Southeast U.S. today.

Severe storms with the potential of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will affect the Gulf coastal and inland areas of south AL, south GA and north FL throughout the morning and into the afternoon. 

Other severe storms associated with low pressure and the cold front will sweep from eastern TX across LA, southern and eastern AR, western sections of middle TN and into western MS through the morning and into the afternoon.  These particular storms could produce hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds and some tornadoes.  These storms will continue to move rapidly northeast at 50 to 60 mph across MS, middle TN and across AL and the FL panhandle late this afternoon and evening, continuing to pose a threat of damaging winds, hail to the size of golfballs and isolated tornadoes.  Storms will impact GA, north FL and into SC and eastern NC through the early morning hours on Friday.  These storms will mainly be strong to marginally severe, but central and south GA and into the Carolinas could experience more concentrated severe storms with damaging winds, hail to the size of marbles and isolated tornadoes.

The extensive convection occuring along the Gulf coastal region of AL and the FL panhandle will disrupt the low level wind field, and could reduce the amount of low level speed shear, a key ingredient to large tornadoes in the Southeast.  This could spare most of AL, GA and middle TN from any storng or violent tornadoes, with most intensity levels between EF0 and EF1.  Further west during the afternoon, the low level inflow should be stronger thus creating more intense low level spin in the atmosphere, the CAPE higher, and the upper dynamics stronger.  If we are to see any long-tracked tornadoes of EF2 intensity and higher today it would most likely be across MS, the western third of AL, and possibly western sections of middle TN if dewpoints can rise above 62F there.  The most likely time for this activity would be between 2pm and 9pm.

I am fairly confident that this event will produce severe weather that may reach the definition of an outbreak.  I’m more confident in an outbreak of severe thunderstorms than I am of a tornado outbreak.  The low level moosture is there, but I am not sure we are going to see the magnitude of 0-1km speed sheer necessary to get a lot of tornadoes going, and especially ones of strong or violent intensity.  There will likely be more storms displaying mid level rotation, than those that actually drop confirmed tornadoes, so we could see a situation where many radar-indicated tornado warnings are issued, but verification of actual tornadoes may be far less.  Still, having said that, the potential is certainly there for significant tornadoes, especially across MS, western AL and western sections of middle TN, with a threat for isolated and weaker tornadoes in many other areas.  So stay up to date on all forecasts, and pay attention to all watches and warnings that are issued today, and take them very seriously.

Updated Storm Chase Plans and Forecast

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , on March 28, 2009 by stormstream

It’s late morning and I am still in Atlanta looking things over and trying to figure this thing out. The complex of rain and storms moving across GA, southeast AL and north FL, is really complicating things. I’ve decided it’s just not worth the drive to head to south GA today, so my focus is turning west to Alabama this afternoon along and ahead of the advancing cold front, and where the warm front intersects this front.

The cool pool in the wake of this MCS is significant. It’s chilly in ATL right now with a temperature of only 57. This pool of cool, stable, sinking air is going to keep central and northern GA quiet for much of the day. We are watching for airmass recovery to the west of the complex across AL. Divergence aloft may aid greatly in getting storms going there this afternoon, as well as higher dewpoints and instability.

Shear values increase across GA, so storms may develop in AL this afternoon and then become better organized, and possibly form into supercells as the approach the GA/AL border and move into west-central and southwest GA.

So, here are my revised storms chase and streaming plans for the remainder of the day:

LIVE INTERNET BROADCAST: Broadcasting live on both Severe Studios and Ustream. http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ and http://ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/ Tune in and ride along with us through the wonders of streaming technology!

TARGET: Columbus, GA to Roanoke, AL to Clanton, AL to Montgomery, AL to Eufaula, AL and back to Columbus, GA.

TIME: Continue to monitor for ATL through the noon hour. If conditions warrant, make a move to get into the target by 3pm.

CONFIDENCE OF SUCCESS LEVEL: Still a low to moderate confidence level in today’s chase opportunities. Still some things to be worked out in the atmosphere before my confidence level rises.

Major Outbreak of Severe Storms and Tornadoes acorss Dixie Friday and Saturday. Blizzard in the Plains.

Posted in Severe weather, Winter weather with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 25, 2009 by stormstream

The next few days will feature WEATHER GONE MAD!  Dangerous and possibly strong to violent tornadoes whipping across the South, while in the colder air Across the central Plains into the Corn Belt there will be a full-blown blizzard.  There is no sugar coating this – many lives and property will be impacted and put in danger by weather conditions between now and Sunday.  These types of high-impact, dangerous weather events always leave a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach, because I know there could very well be people going about their daily lives today that will no longer be with us in a few days.  Taken tragically and prematurely by an act of nature than cannot be controlled, but while we cannot control the weather we can certainly talk about it in strong, attention-getting ways that will hopefully make people understand the seriousness of the event, and hopefully spur them to take the necessary steps to protect life and property, thus mitigating losses.

All of the ingredients are there for a high-end severe weather event across AR, LA, MS, AL, TN and western GA during the day Friday and through Friday night.  Northern and central LA, southern AR, southwest TN and western MS appear to be at the greatest risk for all modes of severe weather during the daylight hours on Friday.  the risk will exist for strong to violent long-tracked tornadoes, and I am most concerned about the Mississippi Delta region being ground zero for this potentially deadly weather.

Heading into the darkness of Friday night and early Saturday morning, the greatest threat translates eastward across the remainder of MS, all of AL, western GA and much of TN.  The severe thunderstorm and tornado parameters remain strong, and there is a very real threat for strong to violent nighttime tornadoes across a region that is frequented by these in set-ups like this.  Overall the parameters are generally weaker than those forecast for Friday afternoon, and hopefully that will lessen the severity of the nighttime event, but the potential is certainly there for just a horrible night, especially for eastern MS and much of AL.

On Saturday exact timing and location of the surface features becomes a question, and a precise forecast hinges on the location of these features.  In general, it can be said that severe weather and tornado parameters continue to weaken, but are still high enough for a significant event that would include the possibility of tornadoes.  As the surface low lifts northeast, the unstable airmass in the warm sector will surge north and northeast ahead of it.  This means that there threat for significant severe weather will now extend as far north as the eastern sections of the Ohio Valley.  Under the gun for severe weather on Saturday will be the eastern half of GA, northern FL, SC, NC, eastern TN, central and eastern KY, southern and southeast OH, WV and VA.  At this point I cannot be more specific about Saturday, except to say that the severe weather threat remains significant and potentially dangerous.

While all of this is going on in the South and East, a blizzard will be raging across southwest KS, the OK panhandle and northern TX panhandle during the day on Friday.  Thundersnow will also be a possibility with snowfall rates over 3 inches per hour and howling winds.  This will be a very dangerous storm for anyone traveling across this region, and those caught outdoors unprepared for the extreme winter weather conditions.  The heavy snow and blizzard conditions shift into northern OK and central and eastern KS early Saturday morning, then northeast into the Corn Belt region during the day on Saturday.  The danger factor for travelers and those caught outside unprepared remains high through Saturday.

Looking ahead, another major winter-style storm is possible for parts of the central and northern Plains and western Great Lakes early next week.  The middle and end of next week could again feature a multi-faceted severe weather and winter-weather-producing storm for the eastern half of the country.

Zeroing in on Storm Chase Targets for Sunday and Monday

Posted in Severe weather with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 21, 2009 by stormstream

This blog post will deal mainly with the significant severe weather possibilities on Monday, but I do want to make brief mention of Sunday as well, which in my opinion, is still looking like a chase day for chasers in Kansas.

Moisture will be shallow and meager on Sunday along the dryline with dewpoints in the lower 50s ahead of the dryline in southwest KS.  However, the shear looks good, and the upper levels will be improving through the day.  The EHI values off of the 18z NAM are between 1 and 2 in southwest KS by early evening.  The cap will also be rather strong, but may break by late afternoon or early evening.  A few isolated thunderstorms could pop along the dryline in southwest KS, and they could provide some nice structure, and a landspout cannot be totally ruled out in my opinion.  I seem to be one of only a handful of chasers who is actually interested at all in Sunday, and maybe I will totally bust, but I think there is enough there to at least consider targeting the Meade, KS to Liberal, KS to Tribune, KS, to Dodge City, KS to Meade, KS zone on Sunday.

Monday is going to be the main show for sure.  Positives: Dryline punching in from the west, good jet dynamics, quite favorable shear.  Negatives:  Rather shallow moisture and dewpoints generally between 54 and 59 along the dryline, fast storm motion, and a rather narrow corridor of instability.  However, so far this season we have seen a couple of situations where we have gotten tornadoes out of this type of set-up, so that is certainly a possibility this time as well.  Everything seems to be coming together across eastern sections f southwest KS and all of central and south-central KS.  Of course this zone could change between now and Monday, but right now I feel confident enough to throw out a target of Pratt, KS to Emporia, KS and 50 miles either side of that line.  Development as early as 4pm, but more likely by 6pm.  A few tornadoes possible between 6pm and 10pm.

Interestingly enough parts of KS could be looking at significant snow by late Thursday night and Friday, and a severe weather episode will encompass the Southeast U.S. on Friday and Saturday.  I’ll blog about the Plains and Corn Belt snow/blizzard threat, as well as the Southeast severe weather threat on Tuesday once this Plains severe weather threat has ended.