Archive for the Uncategorized Category

Maybe a Backyard Chase Today, and Maybe no Chasing at All

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 18, 2009 by stormstream

I may be streaming my storm chase live today between 3pm and 10pm.  My LIVE chase cam can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

THURSDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: Kingman, KS to Pratt, KS to Meade, KS to Anthony, KS to Pratt, KS.

Yesterday was a perfect chase.  My target from the day before was Grand Island, NE, and that remained unchanged yesterday.  On my way up to the target early yesterday afternoon I was able to intercept the tornadic supercell that tracked east along the KS/NE border east of Concordia to Seneca, KS.  North of Marysville, KS I documented amazing supercell structure and a possible tornado.  I soon abandoned this cell and blasted north to my original target, and was able to easily intercept the Grand Island cell on the high-visibility south side.  I witnessed and streamed live to my audience the entire life cycle of a large tornado west of Aurora, NE.

TODAY’S FORECAST: The northern Iowa moderate risk area is out of my range todasy after dragging into Wichita at 2am, so I’ll be sniffing out potential isolated storm development closer to Wichita.  The various WRF models are all showing intense convective development near or west and southwest of Wichita after 6pm.  The 15z RUC also shows an isolated cell popping by 7pm around Meade, KS.  I think there is at least a chance for an isolated cell of two producing hail to the size of golfballs and modest supercell structure.  I’ll be keeping an eye on visible satellite and radar for development after 5pm.  I may be mobile heading west of Wichita as early as 3pm, and if so I’ll turn on the live chase cam.

Updated Storm Chase Plans and Forecast

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , on March 28, 2009 by stormstream

It’s late morning and I am still in Atlanta looking things over and trying to figure this thing out. The complex of rain and storms moving across GA, southeast AL and north FL, is really complicating things. I’ve decided it’s just not worth the drive to head to south GA today, so my focus is turning west to Alabama this afternoon along and ahead of the advancing cold front, and where the warm front intersects this front.

The cool pool in the wake of this MCS is significant. It’s chilly in ATL right now with a temperature of only 57. This pool of cool, stable, sinking air is going to keep central and northern GA quiet for much of the day. We are watching for airmass recovery to the west of the complex across AL. Divergence aloft may aid greatly in getting storms going there this afternoon, as well as higher dewpoints and instability.

Shear values increase across GA, so storms may develop in AL this afternoon and then become better organized, and possibly form into supercells as the approach the GA/AL border and move into west-central and southwest GA.

So, here are my revised storms chase and streaming plans for the remainder of the day:

LIVE INTERNET BROADCAST: Broadcasting live on both Severe Studios and Ustream. http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ and http://ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/ Tune in and ride along with us through the wonders of streaming technology!

TARGET: Columbus, GA to Roanoke, AL to Clanton, AL to Montgomery, AL to Eufaula, AL and back to Columbus, GA.

TIME: Continue to monitor for ATL through the noon hour. If conditions warrant, make a move to get into the target by 3pm.

CONFIDENCE OF SUCCESS LEVEL: Still a low to moderate confidence level in today’s chase opportunities. Still some things to be worked out in the atmosphere before my confidence level rises.

Winter Storm Threat is Over for the Southeast. Cold, then Warm this Week. Severe Weather Pattern Developing in about 8 to 10 Days??

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on February 1, 2009 by stormstream

Ok, as we do so many times here in the Southeast during the winter, it is time to say, NEXT!

What looked like almost a sure thing on the forecast models last Thursday and Friday, now looks like c***. Lesson learned: I don’t care how much consistency is being shown in the models, and I don’t care how many of the forecast models are showing a major storm, DO NOT trust ANY forecast model this winter beyond three days. The performance of the medium range forecast models us forecasters rely on heavily for our extended forecasts, have been laughable at times this winter.

As for the non-storm.. well, it’s going to bring us a little rain. Not much, as most of us see less than .25. No drought relief at all from that. As the rain moves out and the cold air moves in there may be a brief period of flurries where we see a few tiny flakes flying.  Some of us will see no rain or flurries at all.  Quite a disappointment considering what the models were showing late last week.

One area that still looks to get some decent snow will be the mountains of TN and NC. There will be some light snow that develops above about 2,500 feet on Monday, then that will slack off Monday night and Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon the “flow snow” as it is called kicks in. That is when moist, northwesterly upslope flow brings a prolonged period of snow showers. Those will intensify Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a disturbance sweeps across the region, and then snow and wind will become impressive, along with very cold temperatures. In fact, atop Beech mountain and some of the other favored upslope areas, conditions could be called “near blizzard” Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for a time. Total snow accumulations in the mountains of TN and NC will be on the order of 2 to 5 inches, with some favored upslope areas possibly picking up 6 inches, or maybe even more, with quite a bit of blowing and drifting. Actually, if someone wanted to drive and see an impressive snow event then head to one of the NC ski resorts like Beech mountain, Sugar mountain, or Wolf Laurel on Tuesday and spend the night Tuesday night.

This week is going to see some extremes in temperatures. It starts out cool on Monday, then downright cold on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday a warm up begins in earnest, and it is quite mild and pleasant by Friday and Saturday.

Next week, there are some very preliminary indications that a weather pattern could be evolving that would be conducive to severe weather across parts of the Plains and into parts of the East by late next week and/or the week following. The way the medium and long range models have performed, I am hesitant to even mention it, but I want to at least throw it out there as a possibility. It is getting to be that time of year you know.