I will likely be streaming my storm chase live today between 3pm and 10pm. My LIVE chase cam and chat can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/. You may also now access my live chase cam and chat on my blog page at https://stormstream.wordpress.com/ustreamtv-live-stream/.
Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/
THURSDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: Salina, KS to Topeka, KS to Fort Scott, KS to Emporia KS to McPherson, KS to Salina, KS. Specific Target: 10 miles south of Manhattan, KS at 5pm
TODAY’S FORECAST: I am really liking the way the severe weather parameters are coming together across the northern Flint Hills region of KS this afternoon. The supercell composite is up to 4, the CAPE is over 4,000, and the EHI is forecasted to be around 5. Even though 700mb winds are weak, only around 10kts, the 500 and 300mb winds are better, and with that kind of CAPE, and a boundary in the area, a storm may be able to generate a weak landspout, and we may even get some modest supercell structure. I’m also liking the zone of east-southeast surface winds in that area, although they are rather light. The 15z RUC breaks out storms in the target by 20z, and there is an area of significant CU in that area right now on the visible satellite. All evidence points toward at least some storm development. It is certainly not the greatest chance in the world, and the SPC does not even have this area outlooked with a slight risk, but in my opinion it is worth at least a look see since it is not too far away, and it is a pretty area to view a storm.