Tornado Potential Increasing Across South-central and Southeast Kansas and North-central and Northeast Oklahoma on 5/13/09

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CENTRAL_ETA212_ATMOS_STP-NEW_24HR.gif
http://grib2.com/wrf/NW1_WRF_ATMOS_STP_24HR.gif

Still looking pretty good IMO.  This is the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) from the 0z NAM and the WRF.  These graphics are time-sensitive.  I’m glad the SPC extended the moderate risk back to the west to include south-central and southeast KS and north-central and northeast OK.  Also, watch out for gorilla hail today if you are chasing!

The slowing down trend continues.  The 06z NAM now has an EHI over 8 bullseye around Medicine Lodge at 7pm today, and the significant EHI now extends up to include the Wichita, Hutchinson and Pratt areas.  The threat looks to have shifted far enough north and west to put the Wichita area squarely in the target zone.

The NSSL WRF breaks out the first convection along the front near or just south-southwest of Wichita.  I’d be watching the Sedgwick, Sumner, Cowley, Harper, Kingman county areas in Kansas  for initial development as early as 2pm, but more likely in the 4 to 5pm range.  The cap is strong west and southwest of ICT at 21z, but has weakened to an easily breakable range from Wichita eastward by 21z.  This tells me that initial development my be very close to Wichita, KS.  Storm motion today will be from 278 degrees at 21 kts, so easily chaseable.

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2 Responses to “Tornado Potential Increasing Across South-central and Southeast Kansas and North-central and Northeast Oklahoma on 5/13/09”

  1. Gil Grodzinsky Says:

    Good call Mike. Storm reports really extensive east of Wichita and into central OK and points N and E. How are you doing these days? Been a while since sharing a booth with you as an RBM and then as a GFCer. I was part of the RIF in November and have done some teaching although I’m still figuring out what to do full time. Love your website and the photography. You really were so helpful to me with the severe weather and you are at the top of your field! Let’s keep more in touch!!

    Gil

    • stormstream Says:

      Hi Gil! Good to hear from you! I’ll reply here, as well as to the e-mail for you listed here.

      I too am doingt he teaching thing right now. This is my third year of teaching 6th grade science in the Atlanta area. That is a challenging age, but also an age where I can really get the kids excited about science at a crucial time in their life, so I’m having a lot of fun teaching.

      My mother recently passed away, and I was able to return to the Plains for about a month. While I was there I was able to get out a few times and see some really nice storms. It helped me take my mind off the grief, and being out in nature is a healing thing for me anyway.

      Let’s definitely stay in touch. I enjoyed the times we had at TWC, even though it was brief. You have a ton of weather knowledge, and I learned a lot from you when we worked together.

      Take care.

      Mike

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