Severe Weather across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast on Sunday, with Significant Snow across the Southern Appalachian Mountains from Midday Monday through Late Tuesday Night

Severe weather will be possible on Sunday across parts of KY, TN, AL, GA, SC and NC.  I will concentrate only on the severe weather prospects across south and central GA and north FL, as that will be the area I will target to storm chase if I should decide to head out.

A cluster of elevated thunderstorms is rolling eastward through south-central AL into central and south-central GA this morning.  The strongest of these storms are on the eastern edge of this cluster, and are producing some hail.  As the day wears on and moisture and instability increase south of the MCS, I would expect some of the storms to become surface-based, especially those along the south edge of the cluster across south GA, and any discrete cells that should form in the increasingly unstable airmass across south GA and north FL.  Helicity values will certainly be high enough to support some rotating updrafts across south GA and north FL this afternoon and evening, and an EHI maximum above 2 exists across southwest GA at 00z off the 06z NAM. This environment could be supportive of a few isolated, brief tornadoes of EF0 and EF1 intensity.

STORM CHAE TARGET:  Georgetown, GA to Albany, GA to Waycross, GA to Brunswick, GA to Jacksonville, FL to Tallahassee, FL to Georgetown, GA.

Then there is the cold and snow aspect of this system, which will be significant across parts o the Southeast.

This is going to be a fairly long duration upslope snow event for the mountains of eastern TN and western NC. The upslope snow machine will kick in around noon on Monday and continue until late Tuesday night. Snow levels start out above 4,500 feet, with snow levels dropping through the day and into Monday night , with snow increasing. By Tuesday morning, snow levels will have reached the valley locations. I think 5 to 10 inches of snow above 4,500 feet looks quite possible by Wednesday morning , with most locations in the 5 to 8 inch range. Between 2,500 feet and 4,500 feet a good 3 to 6 inch snow is likely. Below 2,500 feet across western NC a trace to as much as 3 inches appears likely. The mountains of north GA and the upstate of SC will also get in on some snow action Monday night and Tuesday morning, with elevations above 3,000 feet picking up 1-2 inches, and between 2,000 and 3,000 feet getting a trace to 1 inch. There will also be a slug of 700mb moisture dropping down as far south as I-20/I-85 in GA between about 4am and 9am on Tuesday. This could create flurries in the air as far south as Atlanta! Finally, a hard freeze looks likely along and north of the i-20/I-85 corridor across northern and central AL, GA and SC by Tuesday morning. As has been the case so often in recent years, the peach crop in this region is in jeopardy.


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