Weekend and Early Next Week Weather System

A strong low pressure system will move from KS to IL over the weekend, and be a significant late season snow producer for parts of NE, SD, IA, MN and WI.  Near blizzard conditions look possible across central and northeast NE into northwest IA and southern MN Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Farther south, in the warm sector, thunderstorms will develop across central KS Saturday afternoon and spread east Saturday night.  The dynamics with this system are strong, and if dewpoints were about 10 to 15 degrees higher than they will be on Saturday, then a major severe weather and tornado outbreak would be expected.  However, that is not going to be the case.  Dewpoints in KS will range from 47 to 53 on Saturday, and the moist layer will be shallow.  This will result in only scattered strong storms developing, and and severe storms will be isolated in nature.  Given the expected helicity values, the storms could exhibit some nice LP supercell structure, as well as produce some decent lightning and small to moderate sized hail in the strongest storms.   The best chance for storms looks to be across eastern KS, western MO and northeast OK on Saturday evening.

This system will eventually become a very deep low pressure system as it moves into the Northeast U.S.  which will bring a surge of unseasonably cold air deep into the Southeast U.S. on Monday, April 6 and Tuesday, April 7.  Some Appalachian mountains snows will be possible, and potential frost or freezing conditions at lower elevations as far south as TN, north GA and upstate SC.  Strong winds and clouds could be the saving grace in keeping a damaging freeze away, and by the time the clouds clear and winds die down the cold airmass will be departing.  Peach growers are crossing their fingers.

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