Major Outbreak of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes Looking More Likely Across Mississippi and Alabama on Thursday and Thursday Night

The atmospheric set-up for Thursday into early Friday morning will be very supportive of numerous severe thunderstorms, and potentially strong to violent tornadoes across parts of the Southeast U.S., centered on Mississippi and Alabama.  This is a very dangerous, potentially life and property-threatening situation, and those within and near the greatest risk area should review their severe weather action plans and be ready to take measures to protect life and property Thursday and Thursday night.

The area of greatest risk will exist across eastern AR, northern LA, western and middle TN, all of MS and AL, and west-central and southwest GA.  The threat will extend across western sections of this region Thursday morning, then moves eastward through the day and extend from middle TN to eastern AL and west-central and southwest GA by Thursday night into early Friday morning.  Anyone living in this region needs to be prepared.  I can’t stress that enough.

Any severe thunderstorm that develops in the above mentioned region on Thursday has the very real potential of producing damaging winds in excess of 60mph and damaging hail.  In fact, storms will have the potential to produce hail to the size of baseballs.  Many storms will become supercells and be capable of producing large, damaging and long-tracked tornadoes and tornado families in cyclic supercells.  The set-up is one that is much more commonly seen in the traditional Tornado Alley of the Plains, and more rarely across the Southeast.  This system has the potential to be one of the largest severe weather and tornado outbreaks of the season, not only for the Southeast, but for the entire U.S.  I would say that most of Mississippi and western, central and south-central Alabama are ground zero for the most intense and life and property-threatening weather, although the entire region outlined above is under a significant threat.

Still, there are factors that could limit the severity, as well as the overall coverage of the event.  Those factors being the potential of Gulf coastal convection limiting the inflow of deep, quality surface moisture and instability into the system.  The tremendous dynamics could lead to more of a squall line event, which would limit tornado potential, however, it would increase the chance of widespread damaging winds.  Timing is still not certain, and if the main dynamics move across the region during the relatively cooler, more stable overnight hours, then that could lessen the intensity of the event as well.  Overall, however, there are far more factors that lead one to believe there will be a major outbreak of severe weather, as opposed to a lesser event.

Please stay up to date on the weather, and please be prepared.

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