Sunday Morning Thoughts on Sunday and Monday Severe Thunderstorm Chances in Kasnas

No big changes in my thinking.  So far very consistent, which is good.

I won’t beat a dead horse, so all I’ll say about today is if the cap can be breached there could be a classic “no-risk surprise” along the dryline in western Kansas today.  If anyone is free and does not have much to do today, then it would probably be worth a stab.  You really have nothing to lose except time and a little money.

The speeding up trend for Monday has stopped, and the CAPE is trending ever so slowly upward in recent models.  This is great news.  I think the models have finally landed on a solution.  Initiation looks to be between 3pm and 5pm along a line from Larned to Medicine Lodge.  The storms will then move rapidly northeast at 50mph.  Try to be on the storms early, and be wary of their fast speeds and chase accordingly by attacking them aggressively from a downwind position and not find yourself chasing to catch them from behind.

I still have major concerns about the shallow nature of the moisture.  The sounding from Wichita for early tomorrow evening shows the atmosphere drying fairly steadily from just above the surface right on through the atmospheric column.  This could make it tough to get robust convection going, at least robust enough to producd the kind of updrafts and downdrafts you need for tornadoes.  Still, hail and lightning would be good bets in this kind of dry atmospheric environment.  If there is to be a “bust factor” for tomorrow, it will be the shallow nature of the low level moisture.

Also, there may be some showers arond Monday morning and cloudiness may hold pretty tough through a good part of the day.  In these kind of marginal set-ups it is critical that you get good surface heating to help things along.  Keep an eye out on the visible satellite and hope for some good sunshine to get things cooking west of Wichita starting around 11am.  If clouds hold along the dryline through 2pm, then that will not be good.

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