Tornadoes Possible in Dixie Today. Snow Likely on Saturday. Get Ready for a Wild Few Days!

It is going to be a classic wild weather ride across the Southeast United States over the next several days.

A storm system today and tonight will bring the potential of severe thunderstorms across a good portion of LA, MS, AL, GA and north FL.  The threats with these storms will be large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  In fact, the tornado threat is looking rather significant for the southern half of MS, and the southrn 2/3rds of AL.  Also, if mid 60 degree dewpoints make it into GA this afternoon, then a significant tornado threat would also exist for areas in GA along and south of interstate 20, and this would include the Atlanta metro area.

Overall, the potential violence of this event will very much be dictated by the degree and depth of moisture across the Southeast.  As of late morning, many dewpoints in the threatened areas of AL and GA are only in the low to mid 50s.  Dewpoints will need to rise into the 63 to 67 degree F. range to provide the sufficient low level moisture to fuel robust and deep convection necessary to produce tornadoes.  This will be a situation where the true potential of this event may not be fully realized until mid to late afternoon today.  There are still several factors that could significantly limit the overall threat and only time will tell whether those factors will go away or remain.  So, it will be very important for those across the Southeast to stay up to date on the latest weather information as the day progresses.

Now for the winter weather threat fro Saturday into Sunday morning…

This threat has been on the models for several days, and is trending stornger with each model run.  I am very hesitant to take the bait on any model threat beyond two or three days given the poor performance of the forecast models in this range this season.  I will say that I am cautiously opitimistic that a swath of light snow will progress from northwest to southeast across areas mainly along and north of I-20/I-85 Saturday into Sunday morning.  Accumulations could range from nothing to a dusting, to several inches.  It is just too early right now to say much more than state that this is a potential winter weather threat.

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2 Responses to “Tornadoes Possible in Dixie Today. Snow Likely on Saturday. Get Ready for a Wild Few Days!”

  1. The latest NAM and DGEX model bring a whopper of a snowstorm event for most of the southeastern states (MS, AL, GA, TN, SC).

    Latest 0Z NAM seems to be stronger with the snowstorm.

    Any comments on how much snowfall could accumulate in places like Birmingham and Atlanta and Nashville areas?

    Thanks!

    I appreciate all you do here!!

    • stormstream Says:

      Hi Calvin,
      The models giveth and they taketh away this winter. Now they are in a taking mood. It’s looking less likely that most of the Southeast north of I-20 will see much more than some flakes in the air and maybe a dusting. Some higher elevations will make out a little better with 1 to 3 inches, but for most of us this looks like a whole lot of nothing.

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