Winter Storm Threat is Over for the Southeast. Cold, then Warm this Week. Severe Weather Pattern Developing in about 8 to 10 Days??

Ok, as we do so many times here in the Southeast during the winter, it is time to say, NEXT!

What looked like almost a sure thing on the forecast models last Thursday and Friday, now looks like c***. Lesson learned: I don’t care how much consistency is being shown in the models, and I don’t care how many of the forecast models are showing a major storm, DO NOT trust ANY forecast model this winter beyond three days. The performance of the medium range forecast models us forecasters rely on heavily for our extended forecasts, have been laughable at times this winter.

As for the non-storm.. well, it’s going to bring us a little rain. Not much, as most of us see less than .25. No drought relief at all from that. As the rain moves out and the cold air moves in there may be a brief period of flurries where we see a few tiny flakes flying.  Some of us will see no rain or flurries at all.  Quite a disappointment considering what the models were showing late last week.

One area that still looks to get some decent snow will be the mountains of TN and NC. There will be some light snow that develops above about 2,500 feet on Monday, then that will slack off Monday night and Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon the “flow snow” as it is called kicks in. That is when moist, northwesterly upslope flow brings a prolonged period of snow showers. Those will intensify Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a disturbance sweeps across the region, and then snow and wind will become impressive, along with very cold temperatures. In fact, atop Beech mountain and some of the other favored upslope areas, conditions could be called “near blizzard” Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for a time. Total snow accumulations in the mountains of TN and NC will be on the order of 2 to 5 inches, with some favored upslope areas possibly picking up 6 inches, or maybe even more, with quite a bit of blowing and drifting. Actually, if someone wanted to drive and see an impressive snow event then head to one of the NC ski resorts like Beech mountain, Sugar mountain, or Wolf Laurel on Tuesday and spend the night Tuesday night.

This week is going to see some extremes in temperatures. It starts out cool on Monday, then downright cold on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday a warm up begins in earnest, and it is quite mild and pleasant by Friday and Saturday.

Next week, there are some very preliminary indications that a weather pattern could be evolving that would be conducive to severe weather across parts of the Plains and into parts of the East by late next week and/or the week following. The way the medium and long range models have performed, I am hesitant to even mention it, but I want to at least throw it out there as a possibility. It is getting to be that time of year you know.


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