Winter Storm Chances for the Southeast go Bye-Bye. Light, Accumulating Snow Possible Tuesday Afternoon – Wednesday Morning

Well heck. For the first time this winter I actually felt confident enough in the models beyond five days to declare that a major winter storm was likely for the Southeast early next week. The medium range models from five days and beyond have sucked this winter, and because for the first time this winter I actually bought into them, I sucked with this forecast. It’s just doesn’t look like it’s going to happen folks.

Despite the fact that the system hasn’t even made it over the U.S. to be sampled by weather balloons, there is just simply to much overwhelming evidence in the models that this thing is going to stay weak and way down in the Gulf of Mexico. Most of us will be lucky to get a dusting of snow, and consider yourself amazingly fortunate if you pick up an inch or two.

Now having said that, I will also say that I am not ready to totally write this system off. I want to see what the models show at 0z today after the system has been fully sampled and real data has been ingested in the models. Thighs could dramatically change. I’ve seen it happen before. However, I do not think the chances are very good that we will see much of a change to bring significant snow chances back to the Southeast. I hope I’m wrong.. again. lol

But all is not lost for the snow-starved, snow lovers of the Southeast. The forecast models show a clipper system diving southeast in the northwest flow aloft on Tuesday. This system would zip across TN and enter northern MS and northwest AL Tuesday afternoon, then sweep across the rest of central and northern AL, central and northern GA and SC Tuesday night, and affect central and eastern NC on Wednesday. It will be plenty cold enough for the precipitation with this system to fall as all snow. It will be moisture-starved, but with high ratios of one inch of liquid water producing 15 to 20 inches of snow, you can 1 to 3 inches of powder out of not a whole lot of moisture. I will make mention of this, although it is a pretty extreme scenario.. the 06z GFS shows this system diving very far south, and actually bringing a dusting of snow to north Florida Tuesday night! That would be pretty interesting if it happened.

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One Response to “Winter Storm Chances for the Southeast go Bye-Bye. Light, Accumulating Snow Possible Tuesday Afternoon – Wednesday Morning”

  1. The latest model 0Z run of the NGM now has the storm back on!

    It shows the SE getting hit by a decent snow..

    Take a look and give your opinion on this sudden flip in this particular model trend.

    Thanks!

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