Major Winter storm WILL Impact Parts of the Southeast Next Monday and Tuesday

I normally do not make such a declarative statement so many days in advance of a weather system, but based on my thoughts on how the weather pattern would evolve all month, and based on overwhelming model support, I feel 100% confident in saying a high-impact winter storm will affect parts of the southeast on Monday, February 2 and Tuesday, February 3, with the worst of the storm happening in the noon Monday to 6am Tuesday time frame based on current models.

Of course nothing is set in stone with this system, and much can change between now and Monday.  The most likely things to change would be the strength and track of the surface low pressure system.  These changes, even if slight, can and will translate into major changes in the forecast since the synoptic heavy snows associated with the low pressure system are likely to be confined to a rather narrow corridor.  So, pinning down exactly where the heavy snow will set up this early in the game simply cannot be done with any kind of accuracy.  Sure, someone could throw a forecast out there, and they could very well get lucky and have it verify, but it would truly be a case of “skilled luck” as I call it.

In general terms, the areas that are most likely to see snow Monday would be northern MS, western and middle TN, northern AL and northwest GA.  On Monday night and Tuesday morning the snow would affect the remainder of north GA, the upstate of SC, eastern TN and western and central NC.  The central and northern mountains of TN and NC look particularly interesting as they could see a burst of heavy synoptic snow early Tuesday morning, then a prolonged northwest flow upslope event that lasts from Tuesday morning to Thursday morning that will add to their snow depth.  The ski resorts will be loving it by next weekend.

Finally, there will likely be a severe thunderstorm component to this system.  A severe squall line with damaging winds being the main threat could sweep across southeast AL, southern GA and much of FL Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.  Depending on the track of the surface low, central and eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina could get in on some severe storm activity as well.

Many more finer details regarding this storm will come into focus this weekend, so keep checking in for my latest thoughts on this major system.

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4 Responses to “Major Winter storm WILL Impact Parts of the Southeast Next Monday and Tuesday”

  1. Looking good for here Monday isn’t it Mike. A good 4″ snow would be very welcome in these parts. 🙂

    • stormstream Says:

      It sure is Charles. Much more so for your area than for the snow starved snow lovers along the I-20/I-85 corridor. Hopefully we’ll get lucky down here and see something good out of this, but I’m not holding my breath on that.

  2. That’s exactly what I need – another blog to keep up with…

    Good post dude. Interesting days ahead for sure.

    • stormstream Says:

      LOL. Thanks Jason. I’m hoping to be streaming live from the zone of heavy snow on Monday. Have to have the transmission replaced in my car first though. 😦

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