End of the Month Southeast Winter Weather Speculation

Not too much going on today, so I thought I’d do a little long range speculating about winter weather chances across the Southeast in the January 25 though February 5 period.

I won’t get specific at this juncture simply because you simply cannot get specific about the atmosphere 8 to 10 days before a possible event. I will, however, say that I am very encouraged by what I am seeing in general in the longer range.

The southern jet looks to become rather active and moisture-laden as we head into next week. The split flow, if it evolves and develops properly, will create a nice zone of confluence and provide some shots of arctic air. This is the climatologically coldest part of the winter we are entering now, and when you consider a substantial snowpack north of 40 degrees latitude, the cold air will have penetrating power into Dixie. Then, the way the flow is set up it looks like we could have some arctic high pressure systems moving into favorable CAD positions toward the end of the month, providing yet another source of cold air to combine with moisture from the south and southwest.

So, there is much to be encouraged about in a general and non-specific sense in terms of ice and snow threats as we head toward the end of the month, and very early in February. I still feel there is a decent chance for a high-impact winter weather event across parts of the Southeast by February 1st. My feeling throughout this month is that we would see a slowly evolving pattern that would first lead to cold, then minor winter weather threats, and ultimately coming to an end with a bang and providing a threat for a major winter storm. After that, we transition into a la nina-driven pattern that favors more severe weather threats than winter weather threats for most of February and March.

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