Mike Phelps Extreme Weather Video Highlights

Finally! El Nino is Bringing Extreme Weather to the U.S.

It’s taken half the winter to get here, but finally the low end strong El Nino weather pattern is bearing some major fruit in the U.S. in the form of extreme weather, and this active pattern looks to continue at least through the month of February, and very likely into the spring as well. Get ready for a continued wild ride on the Extreme Weather Express!

The jet stream is powerful and infused with moisture. This has led to many feet of snow across the mountains of California and the Southwest, and severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the South. Now, we are once again heading into a period where the AO is severely negative, the NAO is negative and PNA is positive. This all equals major DOO DOO for much of the U.S. as we head into late January and through the month of February, but the most extreme weather will likely shift from the western U.S. into the central and eastern U.S. More severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be possible in the Deep South, with major snow storms north of the heavy rain and severe storms. Also, serious intrusions of bitterly cold arctic air will be dropping into the lower 48 on a regular basis.

Anyone hoping for an early spring with an extended period of sunshine and mild to warm temperatures can kiss those hopes goodbye through at least mid-March, and I don’t care what that glorified rodent The Groundhog says in early February.

Southeast Winter Storm and Cold Wave

It’s not often that we are 4 days away from a winter event in the Southeast, and most of us in the know are feeling reasonably confident about the forecast. Now that this pattern evolution that has been ongoing for more than a month has finally reached its concluding stages, the medium range models are going to handle the pattern reasonably well for the next few weeks. So, not only is this event going to be handled well, the upcoming winter events (one or two could be significant for the Southeast) over the next two weeks will also be handled better than they would have a few weeks ago. This is good news for those of you who make a living forecasting this stuff. I think it is pretty clear that the Thursday/Friday system is going to be a light to moderate snow producer for areas along and north of I-20/I-85. I agree with the general consensus of this being a widespread 1-3 inch snow, with a few jackpot amounts in the 4 to 6 inch range. Here is what we need to focus in on regarding this event: It may not be a big snow storm, but it will be a high-impact winter storm. The cold ground will insure that snow that falls will immediately stick to all road surfaces and create immediate travel problems. For areas where the snow moves in during the day on Thursday this will create a situation where schools and businesses will need to anticipate this and close early to avoid a life-threatening afternoon rush (shades of “Snow Jam ‘82″). Then, there is the aspect of out-of-the-ordinary cold. The cold will not be record setting in terms of temperatures, but could approach record levels in terms of its longevity. With such long-lasting cold this will pose a serious threat to folks who do not have adequate heating for their homes, and also for pets outside. Please be sure to take the necessary measures to protect those two groups. Also, make sure to insulate any pipes on exposed outer walls and leave your faucets dripping. Anyone who has ever dealt with busted pipes knows this is an incredible inconvenience as well as being very expensive. Please DO NOT use a torch to thaw out your pipes or you will torch your house. Finally, the snow that falls will not melt off the next day as is the case with most Southern snows. This snow will be on the ground and on roads and parking lots for days. It will get packed down and create very icy and dangerous areas. So, while not a big snow storm, this one will certainly be a dangerous and problem-causing situation during the snow fall and several days afterward. Finally, I want to address the chance for a swath of significant freezing rain to the immediate south of the snow. The fact that this will be a fast moving system should limit freezing rain amounts, but it will still be enough to create glazing and cause problems.

Active Pattern to Continue into the New Year!

We are locked into an active weather pattern across much of the country that should last into the New Year. Many significant storm opportunities and blasts of arctic air can be expected. Looking into my long range forecasting crystal ball I see the next big-ticket storm system affecting parts of the country with heavy snow and rain a few days either side of Christmas. Right now I’d say the most likely regions impacted would be from the Plains to the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Maybe a white Christmas for many? I hope so!

My Latest Thoughts on Hurricane Ida

My thoughts as of 10:30am EST on Sunday, November 8, 2009.

Wind will not be a huge problem at landfall, so whether Ida is a hurricane, strong tropical storm or is extratropical is only a classification concern, and not a sensible weather concern. There will be some storm surge issues, but nothing too terribly bad. Beach erosion should be moderate, but not severe. Overall, a system that should be a good one to sample from a high spot right at the coast if you are lucky enough to be able to get away and chase this one. One of the problems, however, with chasing Ida will be the time of landfall. I am projecting a landfall between 11pm Monday and 6am Tuesday. Nighttime landfalls are never much fun or photographically rewarding.

My official forecast is for a tropical storm in the process of transitioning to extratropical as it makes landfall near Mobile, AL at 3am CST on Tuesday, November 10. Maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, with gusts to 85 mph.

I said the wind will not be a huge concern at the coast, but that will not be the case inland. The gradient between the 1035mb high pressure over the Great lakes and the remnant low of Ida as it tracks across AL and GA on Tuesday will produce a swath of strong winds along and to the west and northwest of the low pressure center. These winds could easily be in the 30 to 40 mph range, with gusts to 50mph. The ground is still rather wet from the rains of late September and October, and additional heavy rain combined with these strong winds will provide the ingredients to bring down a lot of pine trees rooted in wet soil, and whose root systems have been compromised from years of prior drought. So, power outages and some property damage from falling trees appears to be a possible scenario from southern southern and central Alabama across central and northern GA and into the southern Appalachians of southeast TN, western NC and the upstate of SC. In fact, the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians could experience enhanced stronger wind gusts due to elevation.

Then we have the heavy rain element to contend with. Certainly enough rain is going to come down fast enough to create some serious flash flooding concerns. Like the wind threat, this will mainly reside along and to the west and north of the low pressure track across the Southeast. Once again, the higher elevations of the southern Appalachian mountains could take a serious hit from the heavy rain due to enhanced upslope rainfall. Hopefully the heavy rain will be quick hitting and not linger in any one given area for more than 10 consecutive hours, but there remain some questions with the models on just how quickly the heavy rain will move out, so this is certainly something to watch closely. Also, leaves are falling and the wind and rain will shake a lot more off the trees. These will choke drains and create serious road flooding issues.

Extreme Weather Photography and Video Tours 2010

Please e-mail me at stormvideoman@yahoo.com if you are interested in being a participant in one or more of the tours next spring and summer.

I will be conducting at least three extreme weather photography tours in the United States High Plains in June and July of 2010. These tours will be both weather and landscape tours, and targeted at professional and amateur photographers who have an interest in capturing both amazing weather events and awesome landscapes. There will be no down days during each 10-day tour. On days where there is no weather to photograph then we will be out shooting some of the incredible landscapes of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains.

ABOUT YOUR TOUR GUIDE
I have been a professional storm chaser, photographer and videographer since 1989. I have documented 170 tornadoes and five major hurricanes. I worked as a meteorologist at KAKE-TV in Wichita, KS in the late 1980s and early 1990s. I was the senior radio broadcast meteorologist and severe weather specialist at The Weather Channel from 1996 to 2003. I also worked a year as a meteorologist for the Professional Golf Association in 2005.

EXTREME WEATHER PHOTOGRAPHY AND VIDEO LINKS

http://stormstream.wordpress.com/

Mike Phelps Storm Chase Highlights
Uploaded by Stormvideoman. – News videos hot off the press.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

http://www.youtube.com/stormvideoman/

http://www.myspace.com/stormscape_photography/

TOUR DATES
Tour #1: June 1-10
Tour #2: June 12-22
Tour #3: July 1-10

START & END LOCATION: Denver, Colorado. You will need to arrive the day before your tour begins and depart the day after it ends.

COSTS
$2,700. This is the cost for 10 days in the tour vehicle. This covers ground transportation and lodging. Travel expenses to and from Denver, all food and souvenirs are your responsibility.

$1,700. This is the cost for 10 days if you follow in your own vehicle. Lodging will be covered. Travel expenses to and from Denver, all food and souvenirs are your responsibility.

DEPOSIT
$500 non-refundable deposit for tour vehicle tour
$300 non-refundable deposit for follow along tour
No deposits will be accepted after March 1, 2010
When I receive your deposit and signed waiver of responsibility your spot in the tour will be reserved.

METHODS OF PAYMENT
Deposit: Money order or cashiers check only
Remainder of payment: Money order, cashiers check, VISA or Master Card via Pay Pal.

TOUR VEHICLE & EQUIPMENT
A spacious 2008 Dodge Caravan. Mobile internet and nowcasters will insure continuous weather information. The vehicle will also be equipped with a wireless router so all tour participants can use their laptops to connect to the internet.

TOUR SIZE
There will be no more than three tour participants in my tour vehicle. This will insure maximum comfort and enjoyment on each tour. If response is great enough I may need to use a second and even a third tour vehicle. In that case, the three participant per vehicle rule will also apply.

FOLLOW ALONG TOUR PARTICIPANTS
If you follow along in your own vehicle, only two people will be allowed in the flow vehicles. Also, no more than two follow vehicles will be allowed for each tour. This is again designed to insure that these tours stay small and don’t turn into a large, cumbersome, dangerous and not very fun experience for all involved.

BAGGAGE
One bag containing clothing and personal items, and one bag containing camera equipment will be allowed. The bags must be no larger than normal airline carry on bags.

LODGING & FOOD
We will be staying in comfortable and safe motels and hotels. We will always eat breakfast, and most days we will be able to grab lunch. Dinner can be a bit problematic at times, since that is when storm action is usually at its height. If at all possible we will try to eat a good dinner, but just in case I will have a cooler on board the tour vehicle, and you are welcome to buy items and put in the cooler. Due to time issues I cannot promise you will get three restaurant sit-down meals a day. That’s just the nature of storm chasing. I highly encourage you to have cereal or cereal bars to eat in your room for breakfast, and other items in the cooler for later meals.

WAIVER OF RESPONSIBILITY
Storm chasing is dangerous and even deadly. I am a very experienced and safe storm chaser, and I will always do my very best to keep you safe. However, I cannot guarantee that. Just like for sky diving and other extreme ventures, you will be required to sign a waiver that will protect me, my family, any of the other tour drivers and their families from any responsibility if you are injured or killed during the tour.

Storm Chase and Streaming Plans for Monday, July 20, 2009

I am liking the severe weather parameters that are coming together late this afternoon and evening generally west of I-135/U.S. 81 from Salina to Concordia. Specifically I am targeting the Phillipsburg to Russell area between 4pm and 8pm CDT.

I will be streaming my storm chase live today at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/. You can also access my live stream through my blog.

As always, I will have full audio and chat capabilities, and I’d love to have you ride along with me as my virtual storm chase partner. We’ll talk weather as well as any other topic that may come up, listen to some music, and hopefully capture some amazing storms.

Storm Chase and Streaming Plans for Thursday, June 25, 2009

I will likely be streaming my storm chase live today between 3pm and 10pm. My LIVE chase cam and chat can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/. You may also now access my live chase cam and chat on my blog page at http://stormstream.wordpress.com/ustreamtv-live-stream/.

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

THURSDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: Salina, KS to Topeka, KS to Fort Scott, KS to Emporia KS to McPherson, KS to Salina, KS. Specific Target: 10 miles south of Manhattan, KS at 5pm

TODAY’S FORECAST: I am really liking the way the severe weather parameters are coming together across the northern Flint Hills region of KS this afternoon. The supercell composite is up to 4, the CAPE is over 4,000, and the EHI is forecasted to be around 5. Even though 700mb winds are weak, only around 10kts, the 500 and 300mb winds are better, and with that kind of CAPE, and a boundary in the area, a storm may be able to generate a weak landspout, and we may even get some modest supercell structure. I’m also liking the zone of east-southeast surface winds in that area, although they are rather light. The 15z RUC breaks out storms in the target by 20z, and there is an area of significant CU in that area right now on the visible satellite. All evidence points toward at least some storm development. It is certainly not the greatest chance in the world, and the SPC does not even have this area outlooked with a slight risk, but in my opinion it is worth at least a look see since it is not too far away, and it is a pretty area to view a storm.

Storm Chase and Streaming Plans for Saturday, June 20, 2009

There is a possibility that I will be streaming my storm chase live today between 4pm and 10pm CDT.  My LIVE chase cam can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/.

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

SATURDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: Wichita, KS to Dodge City, KS

TODAY’S FORECAST: Today is an interesting forecast.  The environment is actually fairly good for a few tornadoes across south-central and parts of southwest KS later this afternoon and evening.  The LCLs will be low, the EHI high, good low level shear, decent CAPE, and a potent upper level disturbance.  The problem is, there is a lot of rain going on in the target area now, and the air is very stable.  However, all of the forecast models show this rain lifting north and dying out through the morning, with rapid airmass recovery across northern Oklahoma moving into south-central and southwest KS this afternoon.  Today’s severe weather will hinge on this airmass recovery – if it happens to the degree the models say it will, and how fast the recovery occurs. My plan is to monitor this potential event from Wichita through the morning and early afternoon.  If I see the recovery happening, then I’ll probably hit the road and head west and/or southwest by 3 or 4pm.  Wichita may actually end up being a good place to hang out, so I may not have to go far today.

Targeting Central into Northeast Kansas for Severe Storms Today

I am streaming my storm chase live today between 3pm and 10pm CDT.  My LIVE chase cam can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/.

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

FRIDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: North of Emporia, KS

I was headed out to chase some storms in west-central KS yesterday afternoon, but decided a little hail and rain didn’t excite me all that much.  So, I decided to stream a live tour of Greensburg, KS, so everyone could see the progress that is being made in re-building the town after the F5 tornado a couple of years ago.  I hope everyone enjoyed the tour.

TODAY’S FORECAST: A cold front/outflow boundary is dropping south out of southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas.  This boundary will provide the convergence and lift to get storms going across northeast into east-central and south-central KS later this afternoon and evening.  Overall, the deep layer shear is sufficient for supercell thunderstorms, but the southwesterly winds at the surface ahead of the boundary will greatly limit the low level shear.  However, there is a weak surface low over central Kansas, and that is backing the surface winds in a localized area just east, northeast and north of the surface low.  If a supercell can form in this area of backed surface winds there is at least a chance for a brief tornado.  Overall though, the main threat today will be hail and isolated pockets of damaging downburst winds.

Maybe a Backyard Chase Today, and Maybe no Chasing at All

I may be streaming my storm chase live today between 3pm and 10pm.  My LIVE chase cam can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

THURSDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: Kingman, KS to Pratt, KS to Meade, KS to Anthony, KS to Pratt, KS.

Yesterday was a perfect chase.  My target from the day before was Grand Island, NE, and that remained unchanged yesterday.  On my way up to the target early yesterday afternoon I was able to intercept the tornadic supercell that tracked east along the KS/NE border east of Concordia to Seneca, KS.  North of Marysville, KS I documented amazing supercell structure and a possible tornado.  I soon abandoned this cell and blasted north to my original target, and was able to easily intercept the Grand Island cell on the high-visibility south side.  I witnessed and streamed live to my audience the entire life cycle of a large tornado west of Aurora, NE.

TODAY’S FORECAST: The northern Iowa moderate risk area is out of my range todasy after dragging into Wichita at 2am, so I’ll be sniffing out potential isolated storm development closer to Wichita.  The various WRF models are all showing intense convective development near or west and southwest of Wichita after 6pm.  The 15z RUC also shows an isolated cell popping by 7pm around Meade, KS.  I think there is at least a chance for an isolated cell of two producing hail to the size of golfballs and modest supercell structure.  I’ll be keeping an eye on visible satellite and radar for development after 5pm.  I may be mobile heading west of Wichita as early as 3pm, and if so I’ll turn on the live chase cam.