Mike Phelps Extreme Weather Video Highlights

My Latest Thoughts on Hurricane Ida

My thoughts as of 10:30am EST on Sunday, November 8, 2009.

Wind will not be a huge problem at landfall, so whether Ida is a hurricane, strong tropical storm or is extratropical is only a classification concern, and not a sensible weather concern. There will be some storm surge issues, but nothing too terribly bad. Beach erosion should be moderate, but not severe. Overall, a system that should be a good one to sample from a high spot right at the coast if you are lucky enough to be able to get away and chase this one. One of the problems, however, with chasing Ida will be the time of landfall. I am projecting a landfall between 11pm Monday and 6am Tuesday. Nighttime landfalls are never much fun or photographically rewarding.

My official forecast is for a tropical storm in the process of transitioning to extratropical as it makes landfall near Mobile, AL at 3am CST on Tuesday, November 10. Maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, with gusts to 85 mph.

I said the wind will not be a huge concern at the coast, but that will not be the case inland. The gradient between the 1035mb high pressure over the Great lakes and the remnant low of Ida as it tracks across AL and GA on Tuesday will produce a swath of strong winds along and to the west and northwest of the low pressure center. These winds could easily be in the 30 to 40 mph range, with gusts to 50mph. The ground is still rather wet from the rains of late September and October, and additional heavy rain combined with these strong winds will provide the ingredients to bring down a lot of pine trees rooted in wet soil, and whose root systems have been compromised from years of prior drought. So, power outages and some property damage from falling trees appears to be a possible scenario from southern southern and central Alabama across central and northern GA and into the southern Appalachians of southeast TN, western NC and the upstate of SC. In fact, the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians could experience enhanced stronger wind gusts due to elevation.

Then we have the heavy rain element to contend with. Certainly enough rain is going to come down fast enough to create some serious flash flooding concerns. Like the wind threat, this will mainly reside along and to the west and north of the low pressure track across the Southeast. Once again, the higher elevations of the southern Appalachian mountains could take a serious hit from the heavy rain due to enhanced upslope rainfall. Hopefully the heavy rain will be quick hitting and not linger in any one given area for more than 10 consecutive hours, but there remain some questions with the models on just how quickly the heavy rain will move out, so this is certainly something to watch closely. Also, leaves are falling and the wind and rain will shake a lot more off the trees. These will choke drains and create serious road flooding issues.

Extreme Weather Photography and Video Tours 2010

Please e-mail me at stormvideoman@yahoo.com if you are interested in being a participant in one or more of the tours next spring and summer.

I will be conducting at least three extreme weather photography tours in the United States High Plains in June and July of 2010. These tours will be both weather and landscape tours, and targeted at professional and amateur photographers who have an interest in capturing both amazing weather events and awesome landscapes. There will be no down days during each 10-day tour. On days where there is no weather to photograph then we will be out shooting some of the incredible landscapes of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains.

ABOUT YOUR TOUR GUIDE
I have been a professional storm chaser, photographer and videographer since 1989. I have documented 170 tornadoes and five major hurricanes. I worked as a meteorologist at KAKE-TV in Wichita, KS in the late 1980s and early 1990s. I was the senior radio broadcast meteorologist and severe weather specialist at The Weather Channel from 1996 to 2003. I also worked a year as a meteorologist for the Professional Golf Association in 2005.

EXTREME WEATHER PHOTOGRAPHY AND VIDEO LINKS
http://stormstream.wordpress.com/
http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/extreme+weather+video+highlights/video/x82c1t_mike-phelps-storm-chase-highlights_news
http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/
http://www.youtube.com/stormvideoman/
http://www.myspace.com/stormscape_photography/

TOUR DATES
Tour #1: June 1-10
Tour #2: June 12-22
Tour #3: July 1-10

START & END LOCATION: Denver, Colorado. You will need to arrive the day before your tour begins and depart the day after it ends.

COSTS
$2,700. This is the cost for 10 days in the tour vehicle. This covers ground transportation and lodging. Travel expenses to and from Denver, all food and souvenirs are your responsibility.

$1,700. This is the cost for 10 days if you follow in your own vehicle. Lodging will be covered. Travel expenses to and from Denver, all food and souvenirs are your responsibility.

DEPOSIT
$500 non-refundable deposit for tour vehicle tour
$300 non-refundable deposit for follow along tour
No deposits will be accepted after March 1, 2010
When I receive your deposit and signed waiver of responsibility your spot in the tour will be reserved.

METHODS OF PAYMENT
Deposit: Money order or cashiers check only
Remainder of payment: Money order, cashiers check, VISA or Master Card via Pay Pal.

TOUR VEHICLE & EQUIPMENT
A spacious 2008 Dodge Caravan. Mobile internet and nowcasters will insure continuous weather information. The vehicle will also be equipped with a wireless router so all tour participants can use their laptops to connect to the internet.

TOUR SIZE
There will be no more than three tour participants in my tour vehicle. This will insure maximum comfort and enjoyment on each tour. If response is great enough I may need to use a second and even a third tour vehicle. In that case, the three participant per vehicle rule will also apply.

FOLLOW ALONG TOUR PARTICIPANTS
If you follow along in your own vehicle, only two people will be allowed in the flow vehicles. Also, no more than two follow vehicles will be allowed for each tour. This is again designed to insure that these tours stay small and don’t turn into a large, cumbersome, dangerous and not very fun experience for all involved.

BAGGAGE
One bag containing clothing and personal items, and one bag containing camera equipment will be allowed. The bags must be no larger than normal airline carry on bags.

LODGING & FOOD
We will be staying in comfortable and safe motels and hotels. We will always eat breakfast, and most days we will be able to grab lunch. Dinner can be a bit problematic at times, since that is when storm action is usually at its height. If at all possible we will try to eat a good dinner, but just in case I will have a cooler on board the tour vehicle, and you are welcome to buy items and put in the cooler. Due to time issues I cannot promise you will get three restaurant sit-down meals a day. That’s just the nature of storm chasing. I highly encourage you to have cereal or cereal bars to eat in your room for breakfast, and other items in the cooler for later meals.

WAIVER OF RESPONSIBILITY
Storm chasing is dangerous and even deadly. I am a very experienced and safe storm chaser, and I will always do my very best to keep you safe. However, I cannot guarantee that. Just like for sky diving and other extreme ventures, you will be required to sign a waiver that will protect me, my family, any of the other tour drivers and their families from any responsibility if you are injured or killed during the tour.

Storm Chase and Streaming Plans for Monday, July 20, 2009

I am liking the severe weather parameters that are coming together late this afternoon and evening generally west of I-135/U.S. 81 from Salina to Concordia. Specifically I am targeting the Phillipsburg to Russell area between 4pm and 8pm CDT.

I will be streaming my storm chase live today at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/. You can also access my live stream through my blog.

As always, I will have full audio and chat capabilities, and I’d love to have you ride along with me as my virtual storm chase partner. We’ll talk weather as well as any other topic that may come up, listen to some music, and hopefully capture some amazing storms.

Storm Chase and Streaming Plans for Thursday, June 25, 2009

I will likely be streaming my storm chase live today between 3pm and 10pm. My LIVE chase cam and chat can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/. You may also now access my live chase cam and chat on my blog page at http://stormstream.wordpress.com/ustreamtv-live-stream/.

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

THURSDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: Salina, KS to Topeka, KS to Fort Scott, KS to Emporia KS to McPherson, KS to Salina, KS. Specific Target: 10 miles south of Manhattan, KS at 5pm

TODAY’S FORECAST: I am really liking the way the severe weather parameters are coming together across the northern Flint Hills region of KS this afternoon. The supercell composite is up to 4, the CAPE is over 4,000, and the EHI is forecasted to be around 5. Even though 700mb winds are weak, only around 10kts, the 500 and 300mb winds are better, and with that kind of CAPE, and a boundary in the area, a storm may be able to generate a weak landspout, and we may even get some modest supercell structure. I’m also liking the zone of east-southeast surface winds in that area, although they are rather light. The 15z RUC breaks out storms in the target by 20z, and there is an area of significant CU in that area right now on the visible satellite. All evidence points toward at least some storm development. It is certainly not the greatest chance in the world, and the SPC does not even have this area outlooked with a slight risk, but in my opinion it is worth at least a look see since it is not too far away, and it is a pretty area to view a storm.

Storm Chase and Streaming Plans for Saturday, June 20, 2009

There is a possibility that I will be streaming my storm chase live today between 4pm and 10pm CDT.  My LIVE chase cam can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/.

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

SATURDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: Wichita, KS to Dodge City, KS

TODAY’S FORECAST: Today is an interesting forecast.  The environment is actually fairly good for a few tornadoes across south-central and parts of southwest KS later this afternoon and evening.  The LCLs will be low, the EHI high, good low level shear, decent CAPE, and a potent upper level disturbance.  The problem is, there is a lot of rain going on in the target area now, and the air is very stable.  However, all of the forecast models show this rain lifting north and dying out through the morning, with rapid airmass recovery across northern Oklahoma moving into south-central and southwest KS this afternoon.  Today’s severe weather will hinge on this airmass recovery – if it happens to the degree the models say it will, and how fast the recovery occurs. My plan is to monitor this potential event from Wichita through the morning and early afternoon.  If I see the recovery happening, then I’ll probably hit the road and head west and/or southwest by 3 or 4pm.  Wichita may actually end up being a good place to hang out, so I may not have to go far today.

Targeting Central into Northeast Kansas for Severe Storms Today

I am streaming my storm chase live today between 3pm and 10pm CDT.  My LIVE chase cam can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/.

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

FRIDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: North of Emporia, KS

I was headed out to chase some storms in west-central KS yesterday afternoon, but decided a little hail and rain didn’t excite me all that much.  So, I decided to stream a live tour of Greensburg, KS, so everyone could see the progress that is being made in re-building the town after the F5 tornado a couple of years ago.  I hope everyone enjoyed the tour.

TODAY’S FORECAST: A cold front/outflow boundary is dropping south out of southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas.  This boundary will provide the convergence and lift to get storms going across northeast into east-central and south-central KS later this afternoon and evening.  Overall, the deep layer shear is sufficient for supercell thunderstorms, but the southwesterly winds at the surface ahead of the boundary will greatly limit the low level shear.  However, there is a weak surface low over central Kansas, and that is backing the surface winds in a localized area just east, northeast and north of the surface low.  If a supercell can form in this area of backed surface winds there is at least a chance for a brief tornado.  Overall though, the main threat today will be hail and isolated pockets of damaging downburst winds.

Maybe a Backyard Chase Today, and Maybe no Chasing at All

I may be streaming my storm chase live today between 3pm and 10pm.  My LIVE chase cam can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

THURSDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: Kingman, KS to Pratt, KS to Meade, KS to Anthony, KS to Pratt, KS.

Yesterday was a perfect chase.  My target from the day before was Grand Island, NE, and that remained unchanged yesterday.  On my way up to the target early yesterday afternoon I was able to intercept the tornadic supercell that tracked east along the KS/NE border east of Concordia to Seneca, KS.  North of Marysville, KS I documented amazing supercell structure and a possible tornado.  I soon abandoned this cell and blasted north to my original target, and was able to easily intercept the Grand Island cell on the high-visibility south side.  I witnessed and streamed live to my audience the entire life cycle of a large tornado west of Aurora, NE.

TODAY’S FORECAST: The northern Iowa moderate risk area is out of my range todasy after dragging into Wichita at 2am, so I’ll be sniffing out potential isolated storm development closer to Wichita.  The various WRF models are all showing intense convective development near or west and southwest of Wichita after 6pm.  The 15z RUC also shows an isolated cell popping by 7pm around Meade, KS.  I think there is at least a chance for an isolated cell of two producing hail to the size of golfballs and modest supercell structure.  I’ll be keeping an eye on visible satellite and radar for development after 5pm.  I may be mobile heading west of Wichita as early as 3pm, and if so I’ll turn on the live chase cam.

Storm Chasing In Nebraska Today

I am streaming my storm chase to Nebraska today.  My LIVE chase cam can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/.  Live broadcast from 11am to 10pm CDT.

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

WEDNESDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: I-80 corridor in Nebraska from Gothenburg to Grand Island.

I was on the Sumner/Cowley county KS supercell yesterday from the moment it developed.  Early in its life cycle it came really close to producing a tornado as there was a well formed cone shaped funnel extending half way to the ground at one point.  However, I was within a mile of it and never witnessed any circulation at ground level.  The thing then proceeded to sit and cycle for almost two hours south of Oxford, KS, and I was on the air with KAKE-TV live for nearly this entire time.  It was an interesting backyard chase to say the least.  Anyway, on to today’s severe set-up…

FORECAST: Extreme instability pooling along and just south of a warm front across southern Nebraska will combine with deep layer shear and an upper level disturbance to create an explosive supercell environment late this afternoon and evening for area along and just north of the warm front.  A cap will keep a lid on activity until around 5pm, then discrete supercells should explode.  Based on my morning analysis, it appears a likely region for getting a storm will be somewhere near or west of Grand Island, NE.  So, my plan is to head north to York, then westward from there.  I am hoping be in the target between 2 and 3pm CDT, and make adjustments from there.

Outflow Boundary Severe Late This Afternooon & Evening?

The big question today about the severe potential in the Wichita area is if the outflow boundary will be enough to spark a few severe storms with a strong cap building in?  I’ll be keeping a close eye on the visible satellite though the afternoon and early evening looking for evidence of towering CU, and the possibility of a storm forming.  The RUC seems to want to break out convection before dark, however, most of the other models do so after dark when the low level jst kicks in.  If we do get severe storms withing a 75 mile radius of Wichita today then I will chase them and stream the chase live at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/.  I will again be conducting chaser school and interacting with my viewers, so I hope you can pop on and say hello.

Tomorrow, the severe parameters are looking much better up along the warm front extending from southwest Nebraska eastward, and I will be chasing and streaming my chase cam live.  Most likely between Noon and 10pm CDT.  Minden, Nebraska might make a good early target, but I will certainly be refining that on Wednesday morning.

Targeting West-Central KS for Severe Storms and Tornadoes on Monday

I am streaming my storm chase to western KS today.  My LIVE chase cam can be found at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mike-phelps-mobile-weather-stream/.  Be sure and tune in and say hi!

My blog with updated chase forecasts and storm video is at http://stormstream.wordpress.com/

Storm and nature pics at http://www.flickr.com/photos/stormscapephotos/

I saw the Wilmore, KS tornado yesterday and streamed it live.  It was a very exciting intercept as I had to drive southward from Greensburg through the core to get to the very wet bears cage and see the tornado about 1/2 to 1 mile off to my east.  Visibility sucked from my vantage point, but it was exciting nonetheless.  I’m hoping for a much more photogenic twister today.

FRIDAY STORM CHASE TARGET: Scott City, KS to Ness City, KS, to Great Bend, KS, to Medicine Lodge, KS to Dodge City, KS to Scott City, KS.

FORECAST: I’m heading to the area near and north and east of the triple point this afternoon where the surface low, warm front and dryline all meet up.  This area tends to be a breeding ground for storm development, and I’m hoping one develops there today.  If it does it has the potential to be an absolute beast of a storm with hail to the size of softballs and potentially tornadoes.  Like yesterday, I think the best potential to see a photogenic tornado will be in the first couple of hours of the life of the storm, so I want to try to time getting on the storm early.  I’ll be heading out highway 96 by the noon hour.

I can’t thank you all enough for riding along with me on my chases this season.  It has been great showing you all the things that have hooked me on storm chasing for the past 20 years.  I hope you are hooked now also!!    It has also been great educating while I’m chasing, and I hope everyone is enjoying “Chaser School”.  Keep watching and keep telling everyone you know about what we are doing.

Also, I’ve mentioned this while streaming, but haven’t really mentioned it here yet, but I do plan on conducting an extreme weather photography and video tour next season during June and July.  This tour will be geared toward the professional and amateur photographer and videographer who is a weather and landscape enthusiast.  I will take you to the weather so you can get the most amazing photographs and videos of weather events, and I will also show you some simple ways to forecast these events so that you may get to them on your own in the future.  When the weather is quiet then we will shoot landscapes of the Plains and Rocky Mountain region, or the West.  June’s tours will concentrate mainly on the High Plains region from western Montana southward to west Texas.  If you have watched my streams the past few days from Colorado you know ho special storms in that region can be.  In July we’ll hang out in the desert Southwest and shoot monsoon lightning storms and the amazing landscapes of the Southwest.  If you are interested in this and would like me to put you on an early list of those showing interest then simply e-mail me here or at stormvideoman@yahoo.com.